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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 24

New York Jets 23 – Miami Dolphins 23

What Actually Happened

(:56) 18-A.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model