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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 34

Miami Dolphins 23 – New York Jets 26

What Actually Happened

(:12) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.04 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model