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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 10

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 18-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.35 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP