4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 31

New York Giants 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(5:22) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 17-W.Robinson to BAL 29 for 2 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.16 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model