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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 80

New York Giants 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to BAL 29, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 35-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.38 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP