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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 61

New York Giants 7 – Baltimore Ravens 35

What Actually Happened

(9:29) (Shotgun) 75-J.Ezeudu and 63-J.Kubas reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 29-T.Tracy. 29-T.Tracy up the middle to NYG 41 for 2 yards (98-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.98 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model