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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 23

New York Giants 7 – Baltimore Ravens 35

What Actually Happened

(6:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.44 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model