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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 82

New York Giants 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to BAL 45, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 35-D.King to NYG 33 for 22 yards (24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.08 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 82, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 40, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model