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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 30

New York Giants 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(13:51) (No Huddle) 15-T.DeVito up the middle to BAL 30 for no gain (29-A.Washington; 40-M.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.18 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model