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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 70

Detroit Lions 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to BUF 10, Center-49-H.Hatten. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 27 for 17 yards (33-S.Vaki).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model