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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 46

Detroit Lions 7 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(5:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to BUF 25 for 21 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.23 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model