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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 6

Buffalo Bills 21 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.37 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 6, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP