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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 36

Detroit Lions 35 – Buffalo Bills 48

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to BUF 34 for 2 yards. Lateral to 26-J.Gibbs ran ob at BUF 13 for 21 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.40 EP