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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 67

Detroit Lions 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to BUF 19, Center-49-H.Hatten. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 22 for 3 yards (33-S.Vaki).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.03 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model