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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 61

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 39 for no gain (58-J.Greenard; 99-J.Tillery).

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model