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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 29
Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10
What Actually Happened
(2:39) 4-D.Swift up the middle to MIN 29 for no gain (51-B.Cashman).
The Three Options
GO
+2.19 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.95 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
KICK
+0.93 EP
- 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
- 17% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT
-0.45 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
