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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:08) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.71 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model