4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.37 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP