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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 56

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to MIN 5, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-30-T.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model