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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 88

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to CHI 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 39-J.Blackwell pushed ob at CHI 42 for 3 yards (11-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.59 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 88, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP