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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 21

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.54 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model