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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 17-R.Wright punt is BLOCKED by 90-D.Robinson, Center-42-A.DePaola, ball out of bounds at MIN 27. MIN-17-R.Wright was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.28 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model