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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 16

Chicago Bears 6 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.85 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.04 EP