4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 57

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to MIN 9, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.56 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model