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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 87

Green Bay Packers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to GB 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-39-Z.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.50 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 87, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP