Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Green Bay Packers 23

(15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to GB 33, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-J.Reed to GB 43 for 10 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.91 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model