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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 23 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to SEA 4, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-22-R.Rochell.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model