4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 23 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to SEA 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to SEA 32 for 12 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.22 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model