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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 76

Green Bay Packers 30 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 19-D.Whelan punts 44 yards to SEA 32, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to SEA 32 for no gain (22-R.Rochell).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.35 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -1.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP