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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model