Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 68 yards to KC 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-N.Remigio to KC 18 for 16 yards (40-N.Watson). PENALTY on CLE-43-M.Diabate, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at KC 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model