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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to KC 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.19 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 20, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model