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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 14-M.Araiza punts 37 yards to CLE 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Proche. ** Injury Update: CLE-97-J.Briggs has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model