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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 81

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 14-M.Araiza punts 30 yards to KC 49, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-43-J.Cochrane.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 38, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model