Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 14-M.Araiza punts 56 yards to CLE 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Proche ran ob at CLE 26 for 12 yards (54-L.Chenal). PENALTY on CLE-20-P.Strong, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.58 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model