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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to KC 15, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model