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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.20 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP