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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(:42) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.97 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model