4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PIT 28 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward; 39-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.78 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model