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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 23

New Orleans Saints 7 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 19-B.Grupe 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.47 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model