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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 55

Washington Commanders 20 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(5:40) (Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels right guard to WAS 46 for 1 yard (93-N.Shepherd).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.13 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model