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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 36

Washington Commanders 20 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 46-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.29 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model