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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 43-M.Hayball punts 41 yards to WAS 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.71 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model