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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 30

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:41) 38-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.34 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model