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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.59 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP