Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(:12) 10-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to CAR 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thompkins to CAR 42 for 2 yards (32-J.Blount). ARI-32-J.Blount was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model