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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 30 – Arizona Cardinals 27

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 26 for 13 yards (21-N.Scott; 45-C.Gill).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model