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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ARI 4 for 1 yard (95-K.Tonga; 51-K.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO +4.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.05 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 5, worth +0.59 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model