Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 83

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(11:45) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to CIN 40, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to 50 for 10 yards (40-N.Watson, 12-R.McLeod).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.57 EP
71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model