Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Cleveland Browns 0

(11:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 30 for 12 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.70 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model